IranJULY 1 (DAY 125) — The Doha Round Ends on a Warmer Note: Two Days of Indirect US-Iran Talks Conclude With Qatar Reporting “Positive Progress” and an Agreement to Meet Again After Ali Khamenei’s Long-Delayed July 7 Funeral — Working Groups Are Formed, Demining and Maritime Safety Lead the First Phase, and Oman Floats a “Service Fees” Compromise That Could Bridge the Toll Dispute — Yet the Talks Stay Indirect (the US Envoys Met Qatar’s Emir, Not Iran), Iran Still Publicly Denies Negotiating, the $6 Billion Remains Untouched, and the IRGC Still Insists Ships Use Iranian Waters Only
On July 1, 2026 (Day 125 of the Iran-Israel-US war, Operation Epic Fury / Wednesday), the two-day indirect round in Doha concluded on the most constructive note since the late-June crisis — the pause held and the deal’s machinery warmed a degree — even as the hardest questions stayed exactly where they were. THE WARMER SIGNALS: Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said US and Iranian negotiators had made “positive progress” on issues in the June 17 memorandum and had agreed to meet again after the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — delayed for months by the war and now set for July 7 in Qom. Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who took part in the talks, said working groups had been formed to follow up on implementing the memorandum and to negotiate a final agreement, though talks “in this format have not yet begun”; the first phase is focused heavily on mine clearance and maritime safety in the strait, coordinated with Oman. Vice President JD Vance said Washington would judge Tehran “by its actions rather than its rhetoric,” and a senior US official said “good progress continues to be made.” THE POTENTIAL BRIDGE: Oman delivered a proposal to the US and its allies for shipping companies to pay service fees to use the Strait of Hormuz — a possible face-saving middle path between Iran’s demand for tolls and sovereignty and the US insistence that the strait is a free international waterway; notably, the memorandum itself stipulates that Iran will help “define the future administration” of the waterway, giving Tehran a contemplated role. BUT THE PARALYSIS PERSISTED: the talks stayed indirect — US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators, but did not meet Iranian diplomats directly, the two sides having sat down together only once (June 21 in Switzerland) since the memorandum; chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf insisted Iran is “currently not negotiating with the United States at all” and will not until every MOU clause is implemented; Qatar confirmed the $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets remains untouched, its release “strictly dependent on bilateral progress”, despite President Pezeshkian’s claim that Iran was “set to receive” it; and the IRGC kept insisting vessels use Iranian waters only rather than the US-backed Omani route, with Iranian media reporting a foreign container ship ran aground after defying the Tehran-approved lane. ON THE WATER AND IN THE MARKETS: CENTCOM’s Adm. Brad Cooper convened a regional security call with military officials from 11 countries; Tanker Trackers estimated Iran had exported some 50 million barrels of crude in the two weeks since the blockade lifted; and oil, which had fallen to pre-war levels, drew a warning from analysts that markets were “too optimistic,” treating a temporary ceasefire as a permanent deal, with flows unlikely to near pre-war levels before the end of the third quarter. In Lebanon, Israel struck a Hezbollah operative in the Manzala area near its security zone as Hezbollah alleged continued violations of the contested framework. Net assessment: Day 125 is incremental warming inside a still-strained, still-unresolved pause — positive progress, a next-meeting date, working groups, and a plausible compromise on tolls — but with no direct talks, the funds still frozen, and Hormuz sovereignty and Lebanon unresolved, it remains a fragile ceasefire being held together by mediators, not trust.
The Two-Day Indirect Doha Round Concludes With Qatar Reporting “Positive Progress” on the Memorandum
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US and Iranian negotiators concluded two days of indirect talks in Qatar on Wednesday, and Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari said the sides had made “positive progress” on issues mentioned in the June 17 memorandum of understanding (Washington Times, CNN). The talks — the first substantive diplomatic steps since the late-June strike cycle — focused on the status of Iran’s $6 billion in frozen assets held by Qatar and on implementing the ceasefire in Lebanon. It was the most constructive readout since the crisis, signaling both sides preferred to keep the fragile process alive rather than let it collapse.
Doha, Qatar
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Washington Times + CNN July 1: two-day indirect Doha talks conclude; Qatar FM spokesman Al Ansari - US + Iran made 'positive progress' on MOU issues; focus on $6B frozen assets + Lebanon ceasefire.
And They Agreed to Meet Again — After Ali Khamenei’s Long-Delayed Funeral, Set for July 7 in Qom
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Qatar said the US and Iranian negotiators had agreed to meet again following the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Washington Times). Funeral organizers said Wednesday that Khamenei’s funeral will take place in the city of Qom on July 7, after months of delay caused by the war. Setting a concrete date for the next round — anchored to a major state occasion — gave the process a forward calendar for the first time since the strike cycle, even as the two sides kept negotiating through intermediaries.
Doha / Qom
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Washington Times July 1: US + Iran agreed to meet again after former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's funeral, set for July 7 in Qom (delayed months by the war).
Still Indirect: Witkoff and Kushner Met Qatar’s Emir and the Mediators — Not Iranian Diplomats
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President Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner concluded their two-day mission to Doha after meeting Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and the Pakistani and Qatari mediators — but they did not meet directly with Iranian diplomats, according to US officials (Washington Times, CNN). The Emir’s office said the meeting discussed the “progress of negotiations” and Lebanon, with Qatar reaffirming its mediation. The two governments have sat down together only once — on June 21 in Switzerland — since the memorandum, underscoring how far apart they remain even amid progress.
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Washington Times + CNN July 1: Witkoff + Kushner met Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani + Pakistani/Qatari mediators, NOT Iranian diplomats directly. US + Iran have met directly only once (June 21 Switzerland) since the MOU.
Working Groups Are Formed to Implement the Memorandum and Negotiate the Final Deal
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Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who took part in the indirect Doha talks, said working groups had been formed to follow up on implementing the memorandum and to negotiate a final agreement — though talks “in this format have not yet begun” (RFE/RL). Gharibabadi said consultations were continuing to fix the time and place for negotiations through mediators, and a trilateral meeting of senior Iranian, Qatari and Pakistani negotiators was held to review implementation. The structures for a durable deal are being built even as the substantive bargaining is deferred.
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RFE/RL July 1: Iran Dep FM Gharibabadi (took part in Doha talks) - working groups formed to implement the MOU + negotiate a final deal, but 'talks in this format have not yet begun'; trilateral Iran-Qatar-Pakistan negotiators meeting held.
Vance: the US Will Judge Iran “by Its Actions Rather Than Its Rhetoric”; a US Official Cites “Good Progress”
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Vice President JD Vance said Washington would judge Tehran by its actions rather than its rhetoric, framing the negotiations as a test of whether Iran is willing to make meaningful concessions (RFE/RL, CNN). A senior US official said Witkoff and Kushner “have both had very good conversations with regional leaders,” adding that technical talks are ongoing and “good progress continues to be made.” The measured US optimism — progress paired with a wait-and-see posture — matched the reality of a process advancing on structure while the hardest concessions remain untested.
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RFE/RL + CNN July 1: VP Vance - US will judge Iran 'by its actions rather than its rhetoric'; test of meaningful concessions; senior US official - 'good progress continues to be made'.
But Iran Keeps Denying It: Qalibaf Says Iran Is “Currently Not Negotiating With the United States at All”
State Media
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Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said Iran is “currently not negotiating with the United States at all,” repeating that Tehran will not enter further negotiations until Washington implements all the clauses of the June 17 memorandum (RFE/RL). The public denial — maintained even as Iran’s own deputy foreign minister sat in the indirect Doha talks — is a negotiating posture that conditions everything on prior US delivery, chiefly the release of frozen funds and an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, letting Tehran keep the process deniable and reversible.
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RFE/RL July 1: Iran chief negotiator Qalibaf - Iran 'currently not negotiating with the United States at all'; no further talks until the US implements ALL MOU clauses. Iranian-official posture (even as Iran's Dep FM took part in indirect talks).
The $6 Billion Isn’t Actually Moving: Qatar Says the Frozen Iranian Funds Remain Untouched
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Despite President Pezeshkian’s claim that Iran was “set to receive” $6 billion in frozen assets held in Qatar, Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said the frozen Iranian funds — linked to a 2023 agreement — remain untouched in Qatari accounts, with any future release “strictly dependent on bilateral progress and the ongoing mediation track” (RFE/RL). The gap between Tehran’s announcement and Doha’s clarification underscores that the memorandum’s concrete benefits have not yet been delivered — and that the funds are being held as leverage tied to the negotiations rather than released outright.
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RFE/RL July 1: Qatar FM - the $6B frozen Iranian funds (2023 agreement) remain UNTOUCHED in Qatari accounts; release 'strictly dependent on bilateral progress'. Contradicts Pezeshkian's 'set to receive' claim.
A Possible Bridge on the Core Dispute: Oman Floats a “Service Fees” Proposal for Strait Transit
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Oman recently delivered a proposal to the US and other allies for shipping companies to pay service fees to use the Strait of Hormuz, according to a regional diplomat and a US source (CNN). The idea is a potential face-saving middle path between Iran’s demand for tolls and sovereignty and the US insistence that the strait is a free international waterway no state may control or charge for — fees levied for maritime service and safety, brokered through Oman rather than dictated by Tehran. It also fits the memorandum, which stipulates Iran will help “define the future administration” of the waterway, giving Tehran a contemplated role short of control.
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CNN July 1: Oman delivered a proposal to the US + allies for shipping companies to pay SERVICE FEES to use the Strait of Hormuz - a potential compromise between Iranian 'tolls/sovereignty' and the US 'free international waterway'. MOU stipulates Iran helps 'define the future administration' of the strait.
But the IRGC Still Insists on Iranian-Waters-Only Transit — and a Container Ship Ran Aground Defying the Tehran-Approved Route
State Media
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Efforts to assert Iranian control of the strait continued, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps saying vessels may pass only through Iranian waters, not the southern route through Omani waters that Washington has encouraged shipping to use (RFE/RL). Iranian state media reported that a foreign container ship ran aground after not using the Tehran-approved route through the strait — an incident Tehran cast as a warning to shippers. The IRGC’s insistence on its own lane, against the US-backed Omani bypass, remains the concrete flashpoint beneath the diplomatic progress.
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RFE/RL + CNN July 1: IRGC insists vessels use Iranian waters only, not the US-backed southern Omani route; Iranian media said a foreign container ship ran aground after defying the Tehran-approved route. Iranian-state framing.
The First Phase Focuses on Demining and Maritime Safety, Coordinated Closely With Oman
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The first phase of the regional understandings is focused heavily on mine clearance and maritime safety in the Strait of Hormuz, coordinated closely with Oman (RFE/RL). Prioritizing the least contentious and most immediately useful task — removing the sea mines that pushed UKMTO’s threat level to “substantial” and restoring safe passage — gives the parties an achievable early win to build on, and channels the Hormuz dispute into a technical, Oman-mediated track rather than a sovereignty confrontation.
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RFE/RL July 1: first phase of regional understandings focuses on mine clearance + maritime safety in the strait, coordinated closely with Oman. Technical early-win track.
CENTCOM’s Adm. Cooper Convenes an 11-Nation Regional Security Call on the Strait and Defense Collaboration
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US Central Command said its commander, Adm. Brad Cooper, spoke with senior military officials from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen to discuss “the current regional security environment,” including the Strait of Hormuz, and “opportunities for enhancing defense collaboration across the region” (CNN, CENTCOM). The unusually broad multilateral call signaled a coordinated regional posture around the strait even as the political negotiation proceeded through Qatari and Pakistani channels.
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CNN + CENTCOM July 1: Adm. Brad Cooper (CENTCOM) convened a call with military officials from 11 countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, Yemen) on the regional security environment incl. Hormuz + defense collaboration.
Lebanon Stays Contested: Israel Strikes a Hezbollah Operative Near Its Security Zone as Hezbollah Alleges Violations
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Despite the US-brokered framework signed June 26, the Israeli military said it struck a Hezbollah operative in the Manzala area of southern Lebanon, near the “security zone” where Israeli forces were operating (CNN). Hezbollah has accused Israel of multiple violations of their fragile ceasefire, citing repeated strikes on southern towns. Because Iran has made a Lebanon ceasefire a precondition for further US-Iran talks, the continued fighting keeps the two tracks entangled — progress in Doha remains hostage to restraint, or its absence, in southern Lebanon.
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CNN July 1: Israel struck a Hezbollah operative in Manzala, southern Lebanon, near the security zone; Hezbollah alleges multiple ceasefire violations. Lebanon is Iran's precondition for further US-Iran talks - the two tracks stay entangled.
Strategic Assessment
Day 125 is the first day since the strike cycle that the diplomatic signals are more constructive than not, and the warming is real even if it is small. Two days of indirect talks in Doha produced Qatar’s assessment of “positive progress,” a concrete agreement to reconvene after Khamenei’s July 7 funeral, the formation of working groups to implement the memorandum, and a first phase organized around the least controversial and most useful task — clearing mines and restoring safe passage in the strait, coordinated with Oman. After a week that saw ballistic missiles and a dead civilian, a round that ends with both sides scheduling the next one is a meaningful improvement, and the market has noticed: oil has round-tripped to pre-war levels and Iran is moving crude again at scale.
The single most important development is Oman’s “service fees” proposal, because it is the first idea on the table that could actually resolve the dispute that started the fighting. The Hormuz standoff has been a binary: Iran demands tolls and sovereignty; the US insists on a free international waterway that no state may control or charge for. “Service fees” — levied for maritime safety and administration, brokered through Oman rather than dictated by Tehran — is the kind of ambiguous, face-saving formula that lets both sides claim victory: Iran gets revenue and a role, the US avoids conceding “control.” It also fits the memorandum’s own language, which contemplates Iran helping “define the future administration” of the strait. Whether it flies depends on price, on who collects, and on whether the IRGC — still insisting on Iranian-waters-only transit — will accept a civilian, Oman-mediated mechanism over its own leverage. That is the negotiation that matters now.
But the ceiling on optimism is the same as it has been all week: the two sides still will not talk directly, and Iran still will not admit it is talking at all. Qalibaf’s insistence that Iran is “currently not negotiating with the United States at all” is not merely rhetoric for a domestic audience; it is a negotiating posture that conditions everything on prior US delivery — the frozen funds, which Qatar confirms have not moved, and an end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, which continue. Until the $6 billion actually transfers and the Lebanon track stabilizes, Iran has structured the process so that it can walk without having formally committed to anything. That is why the ceasefire remains strained rather than restored: the guns are quiet, the machinery is turning, and a real compromise is visible for the first time — but it is all still contingent, mediated, and deniable. Watch items into the week and past July 7: whether the working groups actually convene; whether the $6 billion moves; whether the service-fees proposal survives contact with the IRGC; whether the post-funeral round is direct or still through intermediaries; and whether Lebanon holds. Analysts are warning that markets have priced this as a permanent deal when it is not one yet — and on that point, at least, the market and this tracker agree.