On July 2, 2026 (Day 126 of the Iran-Israel-US war, Operation Epic Fury / Thursday), the diplomacy that had warmed in Doha went into a planned freeze — and the whole conflict entered the peculiar limbo of a state funeral. THE PAUSE: Iranian negotiators left Qatar as the Islamic Republic paused diplomacy for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the war’s opening strikes in late February; the Qatari and Pakistani mediators issued a joint statement calling the US-Iran talks “positive” and saying negotiations would continue “at the earliest possible time” — a pause of at least a week, after only the second engagement between the two sides since the June 17 memorandum. THE FUNERAL AS STRATEGIC EVENT: Iran released the first images of Khamenei’s casket and prepared six days of ceremonies — a Tehran farewell, the body transferred to Qom on July 7, processions through Najaf and Karbala in Iraq, and burial on July 9 in Mashhad — expected to draw 15 to 20 million mourners, which officials said would make it the biggest state funeral in the country’s history, staged, as CNN put it, to demonstrate the regime’s survival to the very actors responsible for the Supreme Leader’s death. President Pezeshkian called on Iranians to attend in “large numbers”; chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf urged them “to come in great numbers” and declared that “the nation’s call for vengeance must ring in the ears of the whole world”; and Iran’s military warned the US and Israel against “any miscalculation” during the processions, vowing “harsh retaliation” against any threat. Whether Mojtaba Khamenei — the late leader’s son and successor, not seen in public since assuming the role — will appear remains unknown. THE FUSE THAT SURFACED: from inside the Doha room came the most consequential detail of the round — Iranian negotiators reportedly stated they would impose tolls on tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in mid-August, after the 60-day window, which Tehran counts from the mid-June signing of the memorandum; the memorandum bars tolls only during its 60-day term and does not rule out charges afterward, and even the countdown’s start date is disputed. THE CONTRADICTIONS: Reuters sources said the two-day round concluded without progress toward a lasting peace — focused on safe passage and unfreezing Iranian funds, with the nuclear program never discussed — even as President Trump claimed “the denuclearization of Iran is moving along well” and Axios reported that envoys Witkoff and Kushner had spent the round trying to talk Iran out of charging ships at all. ON THE WATER: Iran issued a fresh warning for vessels to follow Tehran-designated routes through the strait, as a growing number of ships hug the Omani coast — a compliance battle that directly erodes Tehran’s leverage — while traffic held steady but subdued at roughly 35 transits a day against a pre-war average near 110, crossings continued via the Omani corridor despite IRGC patrols, and Brent steadied near $73. The US Navy searched for a missing aircrewman after an MH-60S Sea Hawk from the USS George H.W. Bush made an emergency water landing in the Arabian Sea — three of four crew recovered in stable condition, with no indication of hostile action. AROUND THE REGION: Syria’s foreign minister Asaad al-Shibani made his first official visit to Beirut — Lebanon’s president welcomed coordination on border control and weapons smuggling, and Damascus said it was open to meeting Hezbollah — weeks after Trump floated Syrian forces confronting the group; the US resumed dollar shipments to Iraq after a months-long squeeze, rewarding Baghdad’s crackdown on Iran-backed militias; and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif prepared to travel to Iran to offer condolences, with dignitaries from China and India attending the funeral. A UK parliamentary briefing, meanwhile, mapped the negotiating gaps — and disclosed that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei says he holds “a different view” of the June memorandum than his own president. Net assessment: Day 126 parks the hardest questions behind a funeral — the pause holds and the mediators’ tone is warm, but a mid-August toll deadline is now on the table, the route-compliance battle is live, and the next move belongs to a regime staging the largest mourning spectacle in its history.