IranThe Other Strait: Saudi-Backed Forces Claim the Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthis Hit Back at Saudi Airports, and America’s Bombers Leave Britain
Day 221 in one line: the war’s second chokepoint changed hands on paper — the Saudi-backed government claimed the Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthis denied it and fired at Saudi airports — while the United States pulled its bombers out of Britain over a reported Revolutionary Guard drone threat.
"Effective Control" of the Bab el-Mandeb
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces claimed effective control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a month after losing much of the Red Sea coastline and key ground around the strait to the Houthis. Yemeni officials told AP and Reuters that coalition forces had recaptured the towns of Dhubab, Bab and Hadeid, following the retaking of Mocha on Day 220; JINSA reported they now hold a significant portion of Dhubab district overlooking the waterway. The coalition said it is providing air protection over the strait. The Houthis denied losing ground and were reported fighting to keep much of the Red Sea coast. This tracker records the government’s control as claimed and contested; Perim Island’s status has still not been reported.
The Houthis Hit Back
The Houthis claimed strikes on Riyadh’s airport and the Rabigh refinery and targeted the Jazan and Najran airports. The Saudi aviation authority said the Jazan and Najran attacks, on October 5, injured three people and caused limited damage, and Saudi Arabia said its forces intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at the country’s southwest on Tuesday. The Riyadh and Rabigh claims are unconfirmed. A Houthi defence ministry adviser threatened that the group would strike Saudi oil and energy infrastructure and close the Bab el-Mandeb if doing so served Iran’s interests — the first explicit statement in this archive tying a Houthi closure of the strait to Iranian rather than Yemeni aims.
Bombers Out of Fairford
Trump said the United States moved its bombers out of RAF Fairford because of some threats to the base. UK and US officials told the New York Times the move followed new information about a potential drone attack ordered by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and JINSA reported all US bombers stationed there were redeployed to the United States. It follows the arrest of five British men near the base on September 27. If the IRGC attribution holds, it is the first Iranian threat in this war serious enough to move American strategic forces in Europe. It remains an intelligence assessment reported by officials, not an established plot.
Brent Below $100
Brent crude fell under $100 a barrel on Tuesday despite the fighting along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, CBS reported, as Gulf exports outside Iran run above pre-war levels. A US lawmaker described the Saudi-led alignment now taking shape as a possible NATO of the Middle East against the Houthis.
Status Assessment
Tracker status holds at WAR RESUMED. Day 221 moves the war’s weight to its southern chokepoint. A Saudi-backed advance has taken Mocha and claims the Bab el-Mandeb; the Houthis deny it and threaten Saudi energy sites on Iran’s behalf; Saudi airports are being hit. In Europe, the United States has pulled its bombers out of Britain over a reported IRGC threat. In the Gulf, the strait stays closed and the US counter-proposal stays unanswered, a day after Iran’s president called talks meaningless. No ceasefire is in force.