IranThe Last Bypass Closes: Saudi Arabia Shuts the East-West Pipeline After Drone Attacks Launched From Iraq
Day 197 in one line: the Houthis took the island beside the Red Sea route on Friday; by Saturday the pipeline that carries Saudi oil to that route was shut too, hit by drones from a third country — and every barrel the Gulf still exports now has to pass through the strait Iran controls.
The Last Bypass Closes
Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West crude oil pipeline, a 1,200-kilometre conduit running from Abqaiq across the peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The energy ministry said the closure was "a precautionary measure" after multiple drone attacks struck the line in the Riyadh and Medina regions, causing fires, some damage and several injuries. Satellite imagery showed a black smoke plume over the route between Medina and Mahd adh Dhahab, and NASA’s FIRMS system registered clustered thermal anomalies in the area. The pipeline has a nameplate capacity of seven million barrels a day and has been moving four to five million in recent months — four to five percent of global supply. It is the kingdom’s only crude export route that does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Who Fired, and From Where
The Saudi foreign ministry said several of the drones came from Iraq. No group has claimed responsibility. Riyadh said it would not respond to the attack in order to give the Iraqi government "an opportunity to take the necessary measures"; Baghdad condemned the assault and ordered an investigation. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that "the Houthis are able to launch attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iraq because Iranian-backed Iraqi militias allow the Houthis to operate in areas that the militias control." Trump, speaking in Ireland on Saturday, said Iran was probably responsible and that the situation in the strait and Saudi Arabia would work out just fine. This tracker logs the origin as Iraqi territory and the sponsorship as assessed rather than established.
What It Does to the Arithmetic
With the pipeline down and Hormuz closed, essentially all remaining Gulf crude exports must transit the strait Iran has blockaded. The squeeze was already visible before this: Saudi crude exports fell from five million barrels a day in July to three million in August, and Oxford Economics estimates the export constraints have forced production down to around six million. The think tank characterised the situation as a geopolitical supply shock rather than deteriorating market fundamentals, and said that if Hormuz flows stay near zero and alternative routes are not developed, Brent could hold near $110 for the rest of the year. Brent settled at $104.61 on Friday after peaking around $108 on Thursday, with WTI at $100.05.
Trump: The War Ends After the Midterms
Trump said he expects the Iran war to end shortly after November’s midterm elections, and that oil prices will fall sharply once it does. No operational basis was offered for the timeline. This tracker records it as a political forecast rather than a diplomatic development — there are no talks under way, the memorandum expired on August 17, and the President himself waved off the idea of a deal on September 2.
Qeshm, and an Accusation of War Crimes
Explosions were reported on Iran’s Qeshm Island, the site this archive logged civilian deaths at on Day 153. President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the United States of war crimes and called on Washington to "face our valiant military forces" rather than strike elsewhere. It is a sharper register from a president who has spent the past fortnight holding an off-ramp open, and it follows the civilian casualties at Kuhestan and the wider Hormozgan strikes of early September.
BRICS Urges Restraint as Tehran Celebrates
The BRICS summit in New Delhi called for maximum restraint, with reporting describing divergent positions beneath the communique: Iran refusing to concede, the UAE hedging and China offering mediation. Talks in Oman on Monday are not expected to produce a signed Hormuz accord. Meanwhile an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called the Houthi advance in Yemen a "resounding victory", and Tehran is pressing for an end to the Saudi blockade of Yemen now that its allies hold Mocha and Perim.
Status Assessment
Tracker status holds at WAR RESUMED. Day 197 completes in economics what Day 196 began in geography. The Houthis took the island beside the Red Sea corridor on Friday; the pipeline feeding that corridor was shut on the same weekend, struck by drones launched from Iraq. Saudi Arabia now has no export route that avoids the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has kept closed since March and which its navy polices. The kingdom has declined to retaliate against Iraq, asked Washington for help and received intelligence, and watched its exports fall by two million barrels a day since July. Trump predicts the war ends after the midterms; nothing in the day supports that.