Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon on April 10 killed at least 28 people, including 13 Lebanese State Security personnel struck at a government office in Nabatieh — the first Israeli strike on Lebanese state institutions in that city during the current war. Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun condemned the attack, stating "targeting state institutions and its security apparatuses will not deter Lebanon from its commitment to its right to defend its territory." Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said the attack "strengthens our determination to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible." Hezbollah fired approximately 30 rockets at northern Israel through the morning, with impacts reported in Kiryat Shmona, Nahariya and a drone strike that wounded two IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem told the Lebanese government to "stop giving free concessions" to Israel. Meanwhile, Lebanon-Israel direct talks were formally confirmed for Tuesday in Washington after a call between Israeli, Lebanese and US ambassadors. Lebanese President Aoun's office said Beirut insisted talks be held under ceasefire conditions. Lebanon had not yet appointed a representative. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam was set to travel to Washington in coming days. Israel's ambassador confirmed Israel refused to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah but agreed to formal peace negotiations with the Lebanese government. Lebanon's army deployed Commando Regiment units to secure the Government Palace in Beirut amid Hezbollah protests outside against the proposed talks.
The US Department of Defense released its comprehensive Battle Damage Assessment for Operation Epic Fury at a Pentagon briefing. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine stated the coalition had "attacked approximately 90% of their weapons factories," with "more than 90% of Iran's regular maritime fleet now sunk" and more than 95% of its naval mines eliminated. Caine said Iran's missile industry was "shattered, with more than 80% of their missile facilities gone as well as their solid rocket motor production capability." Defense Secretary Hegseth stated Iran's "defense industrial base is nearing complete destruction." The BDA also claimed 80% of Iran's nuclear industrial base had been struck. Officials said it would take Iran "years" to rebuild any major surface combatants, noting more than 20 naval production facilities were damaged or destroyed. However, the BDA claims were immediately contested by independent assessments: CNN reported US intelligence found roughly half of Iran's missile launchers remained intact, including those in underground tunnels and caves. Defense One reported independent experts found the Pentagon's claims on air superiority overstated, noting that US forces still lacked air superiority near the Strait of Hormuz due to drone and missile threats. The War on the Rocks analysis noted the BDA figures represented "battle damage indicators" — observed launch reductions — rather than formal verified battle damage assessments. The financial cost of the campaign was assessed by AEI at $22–31 billion to the US over five weeks.
The Iranian negotiating delegation — led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, accompanied by Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, and members of parliament — arrived at Nur Khan airbase in Islamabad, hosted by Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif. On arrival, Ghalibaf stated: "We have goodwill, but we do not trust," adding that if the US is "ready for a genuine agreement," Iran could be as well. The format confirmed as "proximity talks" — both delegations housed at the Serena Hotel in separate rooms with Pakistani officials shuttling messages between them rather than direct face-to-face negotiation. Pakistani authorities had declared a two-day public holiday, sealed the Red Zone around the Serena Hotel and requisitioned the property through Sunday, deploying military personnel and checkpoints across Islamabad. A 30-member US security advance team was already on the ground. Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency however spent Friday claiming reports of an Iranian team arriving were "completely false" and that talks remained suspended pending Lebanon ceasefire compliance. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated talks were contingent on Washington honouring ceasefire commitments "on all fronts, particularly in Lebanon." This contradiction reflected Iran's domestic political constraint — the regime needed to negotiate but could not publicly be seen entering talks under US pressure. VP Vance departed Joint Base Andrews for Islamabad on Friday, telling reporters: "We're looking forward to the negotiation. I think it's going to be positive." Pakistan's PM Sharif called the talks a "make-or-break moment" in a national address. These were the highest-level direct US-Iran diplomatic contacts since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
President Trump told reporters that Iran has "no cards left" except its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz and vowed to reopen the vital shipping channel "with or without" Tehran's cooperation. Trump announced that any country caught supplying military weapons to Iran would be immediately hit with a 50% tariff on all goods exported to the United States — a significant escalation of economic pressure targeting Russia and China, which have both supplied Iran with military equipment during the conflict. Trump separately posted on Truth Social that Iran was doing a "very poor job" of allowing oil through Hormuz — "That is not the agreement we have!" Oil prices remained elevated above $95 per barrel as tanker traffic stayed well below pre-war levels. Trump also told NBC he was "very optimistic" about the Islamabad talks, saying Iran's leaders were "much more reasonable" in private and had agreed to "all the things that they have to agree to." He added: "Remember, they've been conquered. They have no military."
UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper announced a new round of international talks to coordinate economic and political measures aimed at securing the release of thousands of ships and sailors trapped by the Iranian maritime blockade, explicitly rejecting Iran's cryptocurrency toll proposal. Oil-producing Gulf states and European nations united on two positions: demanding an end to Israel's Lebanon attacks and opposing Iranian toll collection on Hormuz. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber's Thursday statement — "The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion" — had crystallised the international position. Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain all publicly rejected the toll framework. Oman had already formally declared the strait "a natural passage" where "no fees can be imposed" under international law. As of April 10, roughly 8% of prewar transit volume was moving through the strait, with 230+ loaded tankers stranded in the Gulf. Kpler analysts estimated a maximum safe capacity of 10–15 vessels per day under current conditions even if the ceasefire held.
Day 43 produced the most complex information environment of the ceasefire phase. The Iranian delegation arrived in Islamabad — confirmed by multiple independent sources including Ghalibaf's own public statement — while Iran's state media simultaneously denied its existence. This is not contradiction; it is deliberate ambiguity. Iran cannot publicly enter talks under what its domestic audience would see as humiliating conditions, so the regime maintains deniability while negotiating. The proximity format — separate rooms, Pakistani shuttlers — is itself a face-saving architecture that allows both sides to claim they never directly yielded. The critical question for Saturday is not whether talks happen but whether Hormuz and Lebanon can be sufficiently decoupled to allow a framework. The BDA figures, meanwhile, should be read as a US domestic political document rather than a verified military assessment — the intelligence community's own estimates are significantly less optimistic than the Pentagon's public claims. Iran's remaining missile capability, its confirmed mine deployment in Hormuz, and Hezbollah's continued rocket capacity suggest the war could resume with significant Iranian capability intact if Islamabad fails.