On July 15, 2026 (Day 139 of the Iran-Israel-US war, Operation Epic Fury / Wednesday), the blockade started shooting, and the two sides of this war became difficult to tell apart. THE MIRROR: US Central Command said its forces observed the Curacao-flagged M/T Belma — an unladen oil tanker — transiting international waters toward Kharg Island, the terminal that handles most of Iran’s oil exports. “The commercial vessel ignored multiple warnings as it attempted to violate the US blockade. A US aircraft disabled the vessel after firing hellfire missiles into the ship’s smokestack. The ship is no longer transiting to Iran.” CENTCOM released an eighteen-second video of the strike. It is the first vessel American forces have disabled since the blockade resumed at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday; in the first twenty-four hours of enforcement CENTCOM redirected two compliant vessels and disabled one non-compliant one — against 142 redirected and nine disabled across the entire April-to-June blockade. The formula deserves attention. On July 14 the IRGC said it had disabled two supertankers that were “ignoring repeated warnings” and accused the US of “inciting vessels to use an illegal route.” On July 15 CENTCOM said it disabled a tanker that “ignored multiple warnings” as it “attempted to violate” an American blockade. Washington calls one piracy and the other law; the distinction is real in admiralty and invisible from the deck of a merchant ship. CENTCOM’s commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, said Iran had “intentionally” targeted civilians and attacked seven commercial vessels in a week, leaving roughly a dozen crew dead, missing or injured. THE FIFTH DAY, IN TWO WAVES: for the first time the US struck twice in one day — a ninety-minute wave beginning at 6 a.m. ET against coastal-defense systems and cruise-missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island, near the strait’s western mouth and part of what one researcher called Iran’s “arch defense”, and a second wave at 3 p.m. ET “targeting Iranian military capabilities used to threaten vessels freely transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway vital to global commerce.” Iranian media reported explosions at Bandar Abbas, Ahvaz, Chabahar and Hengam Island. THE TOLL SURFACES: government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said at least 30 civilians have been killed in recent days by American strikes on southern Iran; the army reported at least seven active-duty and conscript personnel killed overnight; a health official counted more than 260 wounded in the overnight wave; and Iranian health officials put the week at roughly 35 killed and 300 wounded. State broadcaster IRIB said families and patients at Shahid Baghaei Hospital in Ahvaz — which treats children with cancer — were temporarily evacuated after a projectile from a US strike landed nearby. These are Iranian-sourced figures and remain unverified independently. EVERYONE OR NO ONE: the IRGC did not answer at the strait but above it, warning that the US “must expect other oil and gas export routes that serve the interests of the United States and its allies to be closed as well” — “the region’s oil and gas exports will either be available to everyone or to no one” — a threat whose unspoken object is the Bab el-Mandeb, and said Hormuz stays shut until “the end of America’s evils.” NO NEGOTIATIONS: foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran “currently ha[s] no plans for negotiations and remain[s] focused on defending the country,” and will not adhere to any agreement if the US breaches its obligations. WASHINGTON: Trump told Fox Business he may have to wipe out the IRGC entirely because it cannot be negotiated with; claimed Iran had telephoned asking to meet; said he would “save the energy targets for last, but ultimately we’ll hit energy targets”; and, at a Pennsylvania defense roundtable, said he was still weighing whether to make a deal or “finish it off” — “they want to settle so badly.” CNN reported he is receiving options to expand the operation. THE PRICE: Brent touched $86.44 intraday before settling almost flat at $84.95; Goldman Sachs found Gulf exports had fallen from more than 80% of pre-war levels after the June memorandum to below 50%, about 11 million barrels a day, and said Brent could pass $110 in the fourth quarter if the recovery stays stalled. Kpler reported a growing loss of confidence in the southern route Washington keeps urging ships to use: of 21 transits on Tuesday, every one used the northern lanes hugging Iran. STATUS CHANGE: this tracker’s label moves from MAJOR ESCALATION to WAR RESUMED. Not because Wednesday was worse than Tuesday, but because the old label was wrong: “escalation” describes a movement away from a baseline, and the baseline was the ceasefire. Trump declared the June 17 memorandum over on July 8; Iran declared it void on July 14. There is no longer an agreement to escalate away from — there is a war being fought, for a ninth consecutive day, with no negotiation scheduled. The war never formally ended, which is why this is Day 139 and not Day 9; what stopped and has now resumed is the shooting.