On July 10, 2026 (Day 134 of the Iran-Israel-US war, Operation Epic Fury / Friday), the war paused for breath and both sides spent the day positioning for the table. THE LEDGER: the Trump administration imposed fresh sanctions on Tehran over the ship attacks — the economic ladder extending past Tuesday’s license revocation — while the strait’s standstill eased a crack: at least fifteen commercial vessels transited in 24 hours per MarineTraffic (eleven into the Persian Gulf — six cargo ships, five tankers — and four out), with a US official counting more than twenty on Thursday. CENTCOM maintained the strait is “open.” But the corridors told the real story: Lloyd’s List reported no large vessels have transited the southern route hugging Oman’s coast with transponders on since July 7, new US navigation guidance now describes other routes as “available but not protected,” and a CBS review found no vessels broadcasting any intention to use the southern lane — meaning the recovering trickle is running through Iran’s northern corridor, under Iranian coordination. Compliance as the path of least resistance: the market quietly voting for whichever regime shoots less. THE BAR: a senior US official set Washington’s nuclear terms in a sentence — “If we don’t get the dust, we do not have a deal with Iran” — and its sequence in another: if Iran cannot honor “the easiest part of the commitment, which is not shooting at ships, then, of course, we’re never going to get onto the nuclear negotiation.” The same official offered Washington’s diagnosis of its adversary: “What you see, in some ways, is the power struggle within Iran playing out in real time. We have a lot of options if the hardliners get the upper hand” — cautious optimism that “the more rational factions” could halt the ship attacks, with the ball “in the Iranians’ court.” THE ANSWER: Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iran remains “distrustful of the Americans” — and revealed the depth of the contact the talks have already carried: “during the negotiations, I made it clear to the US vice president that we have no trust in you.” THE FURNACE: President Trump, responding to an assassination plot — which the US ambassador to Israel would later say came from a specific Israeli intelligence tip — threatened to “decimate and destroy” Iran if the regime attempts his life: “1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The funeral week’s “Kill Trump” theater has acquired a declared price list. THE GAP: the day’s most consequential paragraph may have been analytical — the memorandum, it turns out, never explicitly says Iran cannot control the strait. It asks Iran to “make arrangements… for the safe passage of commercial vessels” and to engage Oman “to define the future administration” of the waterway — drafting ambiguity wide enough to sail a war through, and precisely the gap Saturday’s Muscat talks must now close. THE MARGINS: at least thirty fishing boats were reported destroyed in the US strike waves — the line between IRGC swarm craft and fishermen’s livelihoods blurring along the coast; Israel struck the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Roummane, the memorandum’s end-all-fronts clause measured again; US gasoline held at $3.88, seventy cents above a year ago. THE TABLE: the mediators mobilized — talks expected to resume around July 11, a US official telling Al Jazeera the negotiating team is “committed,” while Iran’s leaders refused to negotiate under fire and called the strikes a “war crime.” Net assessment: an interregnum day — sanctions, signals and staked positions — with every thread running toward Muscat. The status holds; the next forty-eight hours decide whether the table or the strait speaks first.