JUNE 13 (DAY 107) — Trump Says US-Iran Deal Signs SUNDAY, Strait of Hormuz “OPEN TO ALL” Immediately After; Pakistan Preps “Electronic Signing” Within 24 Hours — Iran Stays Cautious on Timing, Disputes Hormuz “Service Fees”; CENTCOM Downs Iranian Attack Drones Over Hormuz Overnight; Israel Strikes 70+ Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon; Rubio Warns India on Blockade
Trump: Deal “Scheduled to Get Signed Tomorrow” (Sunday) — Strait of Hormuz “OPEN TO ALL” Immediately After
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Trump: “No Money Will Exchange Hands,” “A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON” — Contradicts Iran’s $24B Claim
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Pakistan PM Sharif: Finalization “in the Next 24 Hours,” Prepping “Electronic Signing,” Technical Talks Next Week
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Iran Stays Cautious on Timing as Trump Declares Sunday — Downplays Claims of Imminent Agreement
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Araghchi: Hormuz “Service Fees” Still Under Negotiation; Iranian Forces Will Keep Intervening “When Necessary”
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CENTCOM Downs Multiple Iranian One-Way Attack Drones Over Hormuz Overnight
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Israel Strikes More Than 70 Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon in 24 Hours
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Rubio Warns India: All Commercial Vessels Must Comply With US Blockade Orders in Hormuz
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Protesters in Mashhad Chant Against Araghchi Over Prospect of Signing a Deal With the US
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Oil Eases and Markets Hold on Deal Optimism as Hormuz Reopening Is Priced Pending Signature
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Blockade and Hormuz Closure Remain in Force Pending Signature — Reopening Conditioned on Sunday Signing
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Both Sides Signal a Deal Within Reach but Not Yet Signed — US Schedules Sunday, Tehran Withholds Confirmation
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Day 107 records a scheduled signing, not a signed deal. President Trump’s declaration that the agreement is “scheduled to get signed tomorrow” with Hormuz “OPEN TO ALL” immediately after, alongside Pakistan’s preparation for an “electronic signing” within 24 hours, sets a hard, public, falsifiable deadline for the first time in the 107-day arc. That specificity is itself the risk: a missed Sunday signing would be a visible failure in a way that the prior weeks of “close” framing never were. Iran’s parallel caution on timing — declining to confirm the Sunday date even as Trump asserts it — is the single most important tell into Day 108.
The disputed terms narrowed to two concrete fault lines. Trump’s flat “no money will exchange hands” directly negates the Iranian state-media claim of ~$24 billion in unfrozen assets, and Araghchi’s insistence that Hormuz “service fees” remain under negotiation — coupled with his statement that Iranian forces will keep intervening in the strait “when necessary” — signals that the central economic and sovereignty questions of the strait are unresolved even as the signing is announced. A deal that reopens Hormuz “to all” while Iran reserves the right to levy fees and intervene is internally contradictory until the text is published.
The kinetic and domestic layers both cut against a clean close. CENTCOM’s overnight drone interceptions over Hormuz, the Israeli strike on 70+ Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and the anti-Araghchi protests in Mashhad demonstrate that neither the battlefield nor Iranian domestic politics has settled into a pre-peace posture. Rubio’s warning to India that blockade violations “will not be tolerated” shows the US enforcing the blockade at full pressure on the very eve of the signing it has scheduled. Watch items into Day 108: whether the Sunday signing actually occurs, whether the published text reconciles the Hormuz fees/intervention contradiction, Iranian domestic reaction, and whether the drone-interception cycle pauses if a signature lands.
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